Methodology
Every assumption visible. Every formula inspectable.
The model shows its work. Every assumption behind a projection is visible, every formula is inspectable, and every intermediate result is shown — so you can check the math rather than take it on faith.
What “shows its work” means here
- Every assumption visible
- Return rates, inflation, life expectancy, claiming ages — every number the model leans on is shown where it is used, and you can change it.
- Every formula inspectable
- The tax, benefit, and projection formulas behind each result are open to inspection, not sealed behind a black box.
- Every intermediate result shown
- Not just the answer — the year-by-year steps that produced it, each one shown rather than summarized away.
A projection is only as good as what goes into it. Different inputs and assumptions produce different results — which is the point of being able to see and change every one of them.
Three ways to compute the same plan
The three modes cross-check each other: they answer the same question by different methods, so no single method has to be taken on trust.
Deterministic projection
- What it computes
- One path, year by year, under a single set of assumptions you choose.
- What it reports
- A year-by-year timeline, with every intermediate result open to inspection.
Monte Carlo simulation
- What it computes
- The same plan across many simulated market histories, so the sequence of returns varies rather than staying fixed.
- What it reports
- The full percentile range, 10th through 90th — not a single success number.
Historical backtesting
- What it computes
- The same plan against sequences of returns that actually occurred, in the order they occurred.
- What it reports
- How the plan would have fared through real historical periods.
What this tool is not
Cloudbreak is an educational modeling tool, not a financial advisor. It does not know your circumstances beyond what you type into it, it does not endorse any financial product, and it does not tell you what to do.
What it does is apply the math to the scenarios you build and show the result, along with every step and assumption that produced it. It shows what the math says — and you decide.
Projections are estimates, not forecasts. They describe what would follow from the inputs and assumptions you chose, if those held.
This page is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment, or legal advice. The examples and scenarios described are illustrative and may not apply to your situation. Consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions. Cloudbreak is a financial planning tool, not a financial advisor.